Thursday, November 6, 2008

Humble Potatoes, Recession, Innovation and Profits

Many many years back when I visited the UK for the first time as a much younger person I stayed there long enough to soak up the culture of the place. Most things I saw or experienced amazed me a lot.

This was because everything seemed so different from what I saw and experienced in India till that time. My young mind was like a dry sponge absorbing all I could and busily reflecting on anything that came my way.

For example, I saw that cars in Manchester or London did not have dents or scratches on their bodies whereas any car in Kolkata had a number of these ugly dents and scratches all over their bodies. There were certainly lot more cars plying the streets than I would ever expect in Mumbai or Delhi and the streets were old and not so wide but clean. The environment had a ring of safety and confidence around it. When my wife lost her passport we did get it back from the local police station within a few hours after losing it. I wasn't unduly worried about the safety of my one and half year old child. The very sight of the beat constables smartly walking past was reassuring. Even now it is hard to imagine such a things happening in India.

Why was it? I realized that the difference lay in the collective consciousness and the learning of the people. When there is collective learning in the society things become much easier, smoother and safer. At the back of your mind you are always assured that no one would intentionally bang your car from behind or none would clip your side view mirrors or scrap the sides while overtaking recklessly or throw your passport into the waste bin or I need not worry much about my son getting kidnapped.  

But there was another interesting thing I observed and it made a lasting impression on my young mind for life. What I observed was the ubiquitous use of potatoes in the meals of the Britishers. I found this interesting since in Bengal we also use potatoes in almost every dish. Here too potatoes were everywhere. I tasted the famous British invention of the 'Fish & Chips' in brown paper bags and then tasted the 'smashed potatoes', 'baked potatoes', 'French fries', 'Potato and Cheese' and so many other varieties.

But what made me think was how did potatoes come into the British culture and in fact in the European culture? Potato as far as I knew was not a native of the British Isle or that of Europe but a native of the South American continent. But being a little curious by nature I delved a little more and what I found surprised me a lot and offered me a wonderful lesson for life.

The advent of the humble potatoes in the European culture was around 225 years back roughly around 1775 to 1790. And that made a lot of sense to me. This time was an important landmark in world history in more ways than one. William Herschel, a British astronomer, discovered the planet Uranus, the first planet to have been discovered through the aid of a telescope. During this time, the French queen lost her dear head to the Madame Guillotine. The Americans were happy celebrating the Boston Tea Party and declaring their Independence. Opium War had taken place and the British annexed Hong Kong from the Chinese. The American constitution was framed with its noble humanitarian ideals.  The East India Company almost went bankrupt and the Parliament had to bail out the company. This was also the time, when the first hot air balloon went up in flight. Galvani discovered electricity in its useful form. Samuel Hahnemann invented Homeopathy. And while James Watt and a band of enthusiastic people were busy ushering in the Industrial Revolution people started working in deary factories in sub-human conditions and slaved for at least 16 hours a day and lived on pittance so to say. They even paid a fine to the owner of the factories for using a candle to work in the late evenings. And across Europe repeated crop failures had devastated the grain market

So this period may be briefly described as a period of war, conflicts, political upheavals, growth, bankruptcy and even climate change and also the age of great discoveries, inventions, scientific inquiries and poverty for the general masses -- a situation which we would easily recognize today as the same things are happening all over again -- perhaps at a much greater scale.

Precisely at this time and in this gap quietly stepped in the unloved, little know, unconsidered and probably unpopular potato. Two centuries after its introduction it became a staple of the British diet.

However, the humble potato did not take off, so to say, because of some upbeat campaign of some glamorous  'Potato Association' of Britain. Far from it. The potato's success was a result of resourcefulness and innovation of ordinary people during a time of crisis, food shortages and hunger. I can well guess that the overarching need for the heads of the families, in those trying times, was to feed their families. They found hope in the humble potatoes. And they used it with great ingenuity. And the hardy potatoes did not let them down either. They also cooperated with the hard pressed people. Though it was not an alternative to grain they proved versatile and people found them easy to grow even in English weather. And this probably made the potato so endearing to the British public and they developed many ways to enjoy them and even grew them in their backyards. I remember my good friend, Ian, quickly uprooting a potato from his kitchen garden and proudly holding it up saying, 'Isn't it nice. I grew it.' You may say that it was a unique case of brand loyalty that has kept the potato in the position that it enjoys today.

Today, history is repeating itself. The underlying story remains the same. We again see fluctuation in the GDP growth. We see wars and conflicts. We see companies, like the East India Company going bankrupt and being helped by the Governments. We see job cuts and managers desperately trying to cut costs. And we see reduced expectation of sales, no new products and services -- generating an overall gloomy atmosphere leading to general economic depression.

But the consumers stay nimble as always. They are busy re-framing their problems according to their budgets and now coming up with new solutions and new expectations. It doesn't mean that the consumers are only busy figuring out cheaper ways of doing the same thing. They have different things to do and want to do it differently. The consumers still want to go on holidays, eat out, entertain guests, buy curtains and shoes, beautify home, build new ones and bear children -- but differently.

This then opens up a huge and different profit making possibilities for manufacturers, service providers and financial institutions -- if only they care to observe the consumer a little more closely. This is simply because the existing needs of the society have not vanished – nor would they. These still need to be fulfilled. So, when the economy is down people simply look to different product categories to solve their persistent problems and needs. They do make trade-offs that reflect their conscious and unconscious decisions. The question is: Will a modern woman stop wearing her lipstick? Will Indian families stop saving money? Will they stop buying gold? Will they stop watching the TV? Not likely.

So, here is a world of opportunity. While companies are only focused on cutting back production and costs, the consumers are busy with their own imagination and initiatives to keep them one step ahead of the companies. This makes it all the more important for companies to use their imagination and technology to step in and catch up with the imagination of the consumers. Though this recession will be much different from the last the consumers will come up on top.

And why is it so? Because consumers are now familiar with both the high end and the low end brands. They have a choice of Bata, Kadim, Shreeleathers, Reebok and Nike.  They would not feel a bit shy or embarrassed to go for budget shopping and go to anyone who greets them with a choice within their budgets. They are now masters of favorably mixing or toggling between high end and low end brands for their various needs. So for companies that rely on lethargy rather than love for the consumers might become a thing of the past – a dinosaur. For example, GM whose only motto was to make money and not cars have already lost the race to Toyota and is now on the brink of bankruptcy.

Economics tell us that 'labor follows money'. The same is true of consumers. They would follow budget prices without any hesitation.

So, keeping up with the consumers is not about predicting the next big need or the next big move or great market research. It would mean a deeper understanding of their present needs and how to respond as creatively as possible.  This is because consumers are only re-framing their problems – not forgetting them for good. So, companies who understand how people with tight budgets re-frame their problems may not only identify new opportunities but also figure out ways to earn unexpected profits. Thinking and feeling about people’s needs can uncover ways to get into markets that once seemed inaccessible or even unimaginable. For example, the Re 1/- shampoo sachets -- shampoo companies are now ever so busy selling them all over India. And as I know they are expanding the business even in these trying times. They are adding more sachet machines (I am proud that I designed those budget machines) to their facilities. And they are still hungry for more.

Other examples spring to mind as I write this blog. For example, why take the trouble of making grade 53 cement only to sell it at a premium? People can very well do without this. Even the toughest roads are built on grade 42. So, why not make grade 30, for instance for making dwelling houses.

Similarly, why not sell cheaper power during night time so that people may run their washing machines to wash their clothes in the late evenings and use air conditioners to get a good night's sleep only to be more productive the next day. It would encourage the consumer to use more natural light during the day and the the power that is saved by ordinary consumers might be gainfully used by industries to produce goods and services for the market and the power companies profit more from it. This might as well save us the trouble of building additional power plants for the time being, when money is short supply.

Why doesn't someone think of buying the e-junk and making workable computers from the junk components for consumers who can't afford to pay more? Backed up by creative software developers it would quickly and effectively spread literacy and knowledge amongst thousands of underprivileged children.

Why the steel companies don't think of manufacturing rods of lesser diameters than they presently produce. The builders then get it cheaper and the houses that are built with such rods would become stronger and more robust in both tension and compression. And the consumer would also be happy to afford such houses and not default on house loans and heat up the economy.

Why do we waste material to build something solid when a hollow section would clearly be better (example, rubber liners used in mining industries). And why use costly imported steel or aluminum as reinforcement for rubber products when humble jute does the trick much better (one of my ideas tried out with great success by a rubber company).

Why make the walls of the gear box casing so thick and waste money -- clearly it could be made thinner. The customer pays less and the efficiency of the gear box increases greatly (another idea of mine which proved profitable for the company).

Why wrap steam pipelines with equal insulation thickness when variable insulation thickness makes the job more efficient and cost effective.

In every case, the consumer pay less but companies benefit and profit from it. It is clearly a great opportune moment in history for a win-win situation -- saving and sustaining the environment, helping consumers to tide over the crisis and also making a lot of money in trying times without destroying the morale of the people by sacking them or closing down industries. 'No wastage and more reliability of products and services' -- might be the new mantra. I got this insight by observing nature. Nature does not waste and its designs are super reliable. Just look at a tree or a river to get the idea. And what is more is that all these small changes that I talked about can be brought about by even more smaller changes in techniques and technology at almost at no cost. Isn't it wonderful!

Hence, this recession may be the ideal and the right background for experimenting with small changes that target big needs. Innovation is all about making small changes to make big and lasting social impacts.

And those small changes that would make a great impact would surely achieve the unchallenged status of the humble potato in the years to come.

As I finish writing this blog, people of the US would wake up to choose their next President for the Oval Office. The US has given the world in form of their Presidents some of the finest human beings and leaders who shaped the destiny of the world in recent times. To my mind, the finest of them was Abraham Lincoln. What he declared for democracy rings even true for social innovation to come to grips with the present Financial Crisis – 'For the People, By the People and Of the People'. The world needs 'Social Innovation' to help people keep their jobs, raise their families and give their children a good education. To fulfill this social role and responsibility this century would belong to Innovators, Designers, Engineers and Creative Minds from all walks of life. What we collectively choose to do as a human race for the next 100 years would  determine the destiny of our dear children and their next generations and the destiny of our dear mother earth.

So, long live the potato! My constant and enduring reminder of what innovation is, who drives it, who profits from it and how it might change the culture of our people for good and for the better. Let  collective consciousness, collective learning and social innovation of the society grow! We have nothing to lose but our worries!

Signing off for now,
dibyendu

I dedicate this blog to Dad who instilled in me as a school boy the enjoyment of studying Political Economy and the enjoyment hasn't waned a bit over all these years.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Apprentice to a Butcher

As a young boy, I was greatly intrigued to learn that Shakespeare, for a while, served as an apprentice to a butcher. I could not connect Shakespeare to a butcher at that time. But I was dismayed to think that how Shakespeare wasted much of his valuable time and talent working for a butcher. Surely he did not learn anything of his craft that made him and his works so famous and enduring. After some childish thinking, I passed it off as: 'Well, even great men like Shakespeare had to take up such lowly jobs (in India a butcher's job is still considered to be a lowly job) to survive. So I resolved that I should not be least ashamed of taking up lowly jobs in the future, if need be, just to survive and can do great jobs later on as and when opportune moments come up. And I understood that no job is low enough so long it helps one to survive with dignity'.

Forty years have passed since that time. And there was no change to my basic realization. To survive is the basic human motivation that gives our human dignity. And therefore, every job has a dignity about it since it helps us survive.

And then one day I suddenly hit upon a realization that eluded me for so long.

This came up while I became a little more curious about learning the roots of 'Lean Manufacturing'. Most of us know that the concepts of 'lean' were developed by Taichi Ohno of Toyota and later made more popular through his books and through Goldratt's 'Theory of Constraints' (perhaps important to remember that the phrase 'lean manufacturing' was not coined by Ohno). But when Ohno was asked as to where he got his ideas from he frankly admitted that he got his ideas from Henry Ford and it was not his original idea. And where did Henry Ford get his concept of waste elimination, lean manufacturing and assembly line that changed forever the concepts of manufacturing operations all over the world? Now came the surprise.

Ford got his ideas of waste elimination and lean manufacturing through his observation of the local butchers at their work. To be candid, till that time, I was not much interested in the butcher or his trade. But this fact that Ford got his idea of lean manufacturing from the butcher shook me up quite a bit.

Without wasting much time, I virtually rushed to my nearest friendly butcher's shop (Golam's Meat Shop) and observed his operation with a lot of interest. And what I saw bowled me over. It was a perfect example of waste elimination (all 7 of them), just in time, 5 S, assembly line concept, TPM and much more. No waste anywhere in the system and what naturally struck me was the inherent simplicity of the operation and cleanliness of the whole place.

In the morning, the butcher and his lean team opens the shop with just one slaughtered lamb. Three more live lambs are kept ready at a distance tied to a peg (inventory control). Before the first customer arrives, the butcher and his team utilizes the idle time, sharpening their tools, maintaining and cleaning the wooden chopping block, and cleaning the place (TPM). As soon as the first customer arrives, the head butcher asks him about his choice of meat (whether he would like to have it from the legs -- front or the rear ones, the chest portion etc and the amount of liver he needs and does he need the meat to be minced or in pieces, etc). Having understood his customer's specific requirement through his short dialogue he then sets out fulfilling the order as desired (Make what the customer wants and just the amount he asks for -- nothing more, nothing less -- no overproduction). He starts chopping the pieces with his right hand and throws the chopped piece with his left hand into a weighing pan and constantly eyes the weight of the meat on the digital meter -- all these done with rhythm and balance. As soon as the meter shows the correct amount the operation stops and while the head butcher gets engaged in collecting the money from the customer one of the team mates starts putting the pieces into a black plastic bag to deliver the pack to the customer. And then comes the next customer. And in between the customers, the cleaning operation is quickly done in a matter of less than 10 seconds to clean up the 'act'.

But as soon as the amount of meat starts dwindling, the head butcher asks his next senior most team mate to keep the next lamb ready (pull system). Just before the first lamb is done away with the next lamb appears on the sales counter kept hanging upside down (Just in time). And how is that done? It exactly looks like an assembly line or a process plant. While one of the boys slaughters the lamb, the other takes off the skin and yet another disembowels the lamb and cleans it up before it is placed on the sales counter (Standard procedure of work). The entire operation is a symphony -- well orchestrated like any famous orchestra.

And what happens to the portions not selected by the regular customers, like the skull, hooves, intestines, tongues etc? These are neatly placed and segregated at designated places for another brand of customers to pick these up and there is one boy in the team who handles this brand of customers. They take these portions for their pets or other purposes. And the shop remains open till everything that has been processed so far is sold out but the shop is not kept open after noon. As the clock strikes noon the operation comes to a grinding halt (work-life balance) and everyone suddenly becomes busy vigorously cleaning up the whole place, cleaning and sharpening the knives and implements and tidying them up (for the next operation in the evening) and again scrapping and cleaning the wooden chopping block(TPM). The cash is counted and the suppliers, who queue up at the closing hour are paid off (working well with a close knit group of suppliers -- quality assurance and supply chain management). They go off with a smile on their faces. A very neat operation.

There are other striking things to observe. All operations are within the arm's reach (ergonomics in its simplicity). They hardly apply any additional physical force than what is necessary for the job (no energy loss). The head butcher is always in a white dress with surprisingly a few spots of blood and the place does not smell - no stench, no running rivulets of blood and water, no mess in this rather messy business (customer focus). And the head butcher trains his team mates all the while (continuous on the job training), fully aware that these young lads, as they grow up and learn more about the business, would leave him and set up shop elsewhere. He does not care about that. He also does not seem to care about recession or inflation knowing fully well that human population would keep growing and there is no limit to human consumption till he lives and works and can do exactly as per the market demand -- quite counter intuitive - I must admit.

No wonder, Henry Ford got many of his brilliant ideas of Lean Manufacturing from the humble butcher and his operation. His brilliant mind could take in what he saw and clearly projected his learning well into the future. This is innovation. This is because knowledge in one field was applied to quite a different field of human activity and it changed the way in which we worked so far in manufacturing. It changed the concepts and it changed everything for good for the good of the human society.

So, after all, innovation is not that scary! It starts with our observation, playing with what we observe and gaining insights to form interesting points of view (POV). It may also lead to great laws like Newton's laws. After all, the great Newton also got his ideas from his intent observation and play. Since knowledge is all around us, it all depends on how we see this knowledge and glean relevant insights to improve the way we do things.

Many from the manufacturing industry with whom I interact firmly believe in seeing what similar industries are doing elsewhere and benchmark themselves with similar industries. There is nothing wrong with this. It helps one to take note of the best practices so as to replicate the same in their industries and thereby improve productivity.

But 'best practices' are not new knowledge. They are still looking for ideas inside the box and not outside the box. With time, they would certainly know with lot of clarity the dimensions of this box, the color, texture, smell and everything about the box and then they would like to make it bigger keeping the other features intact. But that would not initiate the culture of innovation. Far from it. To initiate a culture of innovation, people should be encouraged to look outside the box -- that is look keenly as to what goes on in other industries -- however, small and humble that might appear to be -- may be a butcher shop or the 'biri making shop' (traditional Indian mini cigars). Knowledge is everywhere -- just impatiently waiting for us to be pick them up and apply them to whatever we do. That is what I understand as 'thinking outside the box'. Well we have to find time for this and do this activity in a relaxed manner for the greater benefit of our society.

However, this example, also highlights the purpose of innovation. The basic end purpose of all innovations is to ensure the our well being. Does it help us to perform better at the task that we do or the way we do the tasks or the way in which we think about something (Performance)? Does it help us to produce more with less and save resources and thereby save the earth (Productivity)? Does it help us to make money to lead a proper balanced life and improve the standard of living for us and for our future generations and help us live with dignity (Profitability)?

You might be wondering by now as to what happened to my understanding of Shakespeare with whom I started this story. Well, I now realize the importance of his apprenticeship to the butcher and can now make the connection. The great man was definitely not wasting his time, he was too intelligent and bright to waste his valuable time.

He probably absorbed the lean manufacturing concepts from his boss and his operation and applied it to his life and his works (completely different field of human activity -- literature). That is why he could complete 37 great plays in such a short time (quality and made to order -- as demanded by Swan Theater -- no over production). History says that he penned his stories in a collaborative manner with a team of assistants (lean manufacturing and team work with able team members). That is why he could express universal and timeless human emotions and follies through stories of kings and queens (keeping with the expectation of ordinary people of his time -- customer focus -- the ordinary people certainly did not like to see similar drab stories of their colorless lives being played out on the stage -- they wanted to see something more glamorous -- that would enable them to pleasantly forget their pains for the time being and hope for a better future). That is why he offered them such fine stories so that the plays would run full houses for days (profitability through talent). That is why he wrote as briefly as he could and directly in the play format (no wastage of energy and time -- it was left to other great minds to explain to us the depths and intricacies of his writings). And it is amply clear that he kept on observing human mind, behavior and emotions, reading and researching on various topics (stories and events that did not necessarily belong to England), imagining and writing to hone his skills with the greatest determination to raise it to its highest levels of perfection and brilliance (working out of the box and continuous learning).

I now humbly acknowledge the contribution of butchers to the progress of our human civilization and I am already preparing myself to make a video or a photo log of my friend, Golam and his shop. I think it is a better way to share knowledge with adult learners rather than making them go through well written academic books. But my friend is quite taken aback by my proposal. He wonders 'What is all this fuss about. How can I be so important?' he said. He then added with a tinge of surprise in his voice,'Videos and photo shoots are meant for film stars, singers and clebrities, not me'.

I empathize. He simply fails to see the 'cloud in the book'(one of the topics of my future blog).

But do we all succeed in seeing the 'cloud in the book'?

May be, may be not!

Incidentally tonight, as I write to complete this blog, the Diwali festival has started and I can hear the sounds of crackers in the distance (Diwali is the festival of light in India). It is supposed to dispel all darkness in our souls and brighten up our lives. Let this Diwali brighten up our lives and spirits.

Wish you all a very happy and prosperous Diwali.

Signing off for now,

dibyendu

http://systemdesignthinking.blogspot.com

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Management's Will to Make It Happen!


Last week I was conducting a in-company training course on 'Why Equipment Fail and What we can do about it?' for a large public sector Power industry in India.

The course was attended by 12 senior engineers and managers of the Corporation. And they all liked the course and gave excellent feedback stating that such a course with its new concepts ought to be held regularly for the Corporation and others should also benefit. That was fine, I thought. But this is not the end of the story. This is not what I was looking for.

So, I asked them as to how they can implement the concepts back in their own workplace. Then came the surprise. Each one said that it can't be implemented. Why was that? They had different reasons. While one said that the workers and supervisors would not listen to them another quipped in that their management processes and policies would not allow them to do anything new and would always expect them to follow the so called 'beaten path'. Most of them thought this way. The management rules were rigid and if anything has to be changed then it ought to be changed by the Central Govt. There was no escaping from this fact.

So, what I observed was a group of otherwise talented people who got stuck in a system which I now term as the 'Duck' system. What does the duck do? It 'quacks' all the time. Hence the management system was behaving like a duck.

Can we do this in a better way? Quack Quack.

Can this be done differently? Quack Quack.

Can we stop doing this boring meaningless routine? Quack Quack.

The answer is always the same, no matter what!

However, my experience with another private sector company, one of the largest cement companies in India was completely different. The top managers would take time and energy to sit through in the discussions and interactions urging people to make action plans and implement any good idea which they thought would make their lives better. They virtually insist and are ready to provide all necessary support and resources for implementation. What I saw was commendable and even apparently strange. Immediately after the interactions the participants would prepare the necessary indents whatever they thought would be needed to bring about the changes and the top manager would approve them in a matter of minutes. This was because they also sat through the concluding meetings and updated themselves with the analysis that went behind a proposed change.

In a way, they were ready to reward excellent failures too! What a great idea! This is what Henry Ford did when he managed his organisation. He sometimes knew that the manager was wrong. But he still approved the way they thought. When asked about this seemingly strange behaviour he replied that he was fully aware of the fact that 8 of the 10 ideas would go wrong. But as a business man he also knew that even if 2 ideas out of 10 came out correctly he still stands not only to gain immensely but also wipe out the losses incurred through implementation of the other eight 'not so good ideas'.

And I think that such a process encourages people to remain motivated and committed to the organization's cause. Moreover, there can't be a better way of learning than learning both from mistakes and successes.I personally as a young engineer learnt both from my mistakes and successes. Over a period of time the odds to create success far outweigh the odds to create failures without inducing mental atrophy (No new ideas, please! No changes, please! Don't rock the boat, I insist!). But it has a caveat! We must have a thinking process that allows us to think wide and deep and also take into account the play of opposites. I would explain this some other time. 

But why was the mangement of the cement company doing this? Are they crazy? Certainly not. They have a strong business case in their minds. They are convinced, by reviewing previous successes, that once implemented the company stands to gain for years and the life of the people would be much easier through better and easier systems that evolve over time as opposed to systems that are imposed on people -- often terming them to be the best in the world (the truth is that it simply does not work).

This system that evolves over time, aggressively responding to the changes going on is a system is a system that I call 'The Eagle' -- a bird that has the agility and strength to respond creatively to its needs and changes taking place in its environment every minute. A bird that never hesitates to fly higher to surmount any obstacle and have a better view of things and reduce the energy needed for gliding for miles and also swoop down on a prey in a matter of seconds. I think you can well visualize the analogy I have just drawn between the Eagle and company that enjoys improvements.

No wonder that this company is doing extremely well for years and one of their plants consistently won the first prize in World Class Maintenance from the World Cement Association for the last 9 years from the time they implemented improvements as a cornerstone of their management activities, of course with a different thinking process, which might be loosely described as a process of debate and dialogue.
 
So, in brief, the difference between plant that succeed and the plants that don't do quite well is the difference in management attitude -- Duck or an Eagle mentality. Reliability Improvement can only be made if and only if the Management is willing to respond to the changes that continually takes place in the business scenario that takes place every minute.

A few months back during our annual conference on 'Equipment Reliability and Its Improvement', Mr. Harsh Jha, MD, Tata Metaliks, had something very significant to say. He said that permenent long standing changes can only be brought about by changing the process'.

I fully agree and nothing can be further than the truth of improvement and sustainability of any organisation. We can change the 'Thinking Process'. We can change our 'Work Process'. We can change our 'Operation Process'. We can change our 'Procurement Process'. We can change our 'Contract Management process'. And we can change our 'Management Process'. All for the better. However, this much is clear to my mind through my observations that organisations that stubbornly refuse to change would not only die an untimely death but also live a difficult life till the time they walk the face of this earth.Or as Shakespeare said: cowards die many times before their death.

But at the same time, I have also felt that change can't be brought about by so called 'change management programs'. Change can't be brought about by introducing 'systems' that operated successfully elsewhere in the same industry or for that matter in different class of industry. No human being wants to change unless forced by his own conciousness to change (sounds like Newton's first law of motion). A change can only happen through a person's awarenss and intelligent response to a concrete experience he/she faces. And a 'change' is nothing but a 'clever design' arising solely out of human thought. Management would do well to support and encourage people to come out openly with their 'concrete experiences' and then encourage them to come up with 'clever designs' as a response to those 'concrete experiences' and aggresively implement them and then urge them to go forward.

Once done, in the heart of hearts, the employee would be sold to the management for life since the management has restored the much needed faith in oneself and the pride of being alive and working. The employee would then think ten times before he decides to leave an organisation. (At last, there seems to be on the horizon a possible solution to counter the high attrition rate of employees in an organisation). On the whole, it then brings about a 'qualitative' change in the organisations, which I must admit is difficult if not impossible to measure.

And that brings me to the final point I want to make -- people matter in any change or improvement. And the desired change can only happen through people who enjoy the warmth of management support and encouragement. Inducements, great techniques, best systems and best processes don't matter at all. Human consciousness is uplifted step by step just the way we climb a ladder -- step by step. It depends on the degree of realization. Hence all improvements are only a matter of people's individual desire to improve and would only happen if people realize this fundamental point and management is willing to stroke the embers.

At this point, I hurriedly add, if I may, a Zen saying, "Talking does not cook rice". 

It is Durga Puja time in Bengal -- generally a time for fun and frolic! I use this time to catch up on my readings and writing. And I have one big unfinished task lying in front of me -- to complete my book -- which is taking a lot of time to finish. I have been slowly building up my resolve to complete this unfinished work for the last two weeks. But my resolve seems to be wavering. I however, realize that even with the completion of the book my work would greatly remain unfinished and it would be up to others to finish it -- or rather take it further through evolution. May be a few of you would love doing that -- I wonder!

So good bye for now and wish you all a very Happy Puja!

signing off for now
dibyendu 

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The Physics of Failure of Transformer


Last time I promised to answer Mr. Chattopadhayay's queries on the blog "Funny and Freak failure mode of a transformer".

First of all I would like to start the explanation with my most favorite style -- i.e. by understanding the Physics of failure of a transformer and then explain the physics of how the explosion would occur and what its consequences might be. I would then try to highlight other possible reasons of such explosions taking place and conclude by listing out the possible measures that can be taken by us to prevent such life threatening explosions.

Any short circuit of such a transformer would produce an electric arc that contains very high heat energy. This high energy is then capable of initiating a phenomenon called 'oil cracking' (this principle I believe, is also used favorably in petrochemical industries). What happens when the transformer oil cracks? It produces primarily acetylene and hydrogen as dangerous combustible gases. However, with high di-electric strength of the oil along with the inherent good design of a transformer it is difficult, if not impossible, to produce the cracking phenomenon. This is because all high voltage power transformers are to be tested for short circuit after these are manufactured. This is done as per IEE norms of short circuiting. The transformer is short circuited and kept that way for at least 2 sec, which is sufficient for the cracking to take place, since such cracking would take around 0.1 sec time to happen. Unfortunately very few transformer companies have such testing facilities and very few users specify such a test during procurement stage of a power transformer.

But coming back to the point, these combustible gases can now exist in at least two ways -- either as oil in vapor phase or as mist having explosive properties. The high energy of the short circuit then easily sets off the fire to the combustible gases, which then rapidly expands and explodes producing rapidly oscillating pressure waves. And as we know, the pressure of such waves is directly proportional to square of acceleration. So, it is the acceleration component that produces the high force that explodes the transformer spilling the oil and spreading fire all over thus damaging property and possibly human lives.

But what can produce this short circuit? Well the unwitting hawk could have certainly caused it. But there appears to be another common reason. Such short circuiting might also happen if the bus bar support barrier catches moisture from the atmosphere when we open up the transformer for repair and maintenance (especially in places having high relative humidity). This, I presume would generally go unnoticed by the maintenance crew if they are not very enlightened about the physics of failure. The moisture then compromises with the insulating property of the barrier and is subjected to electrical tracking that leads to a definite possibility of short circuit and consequent fire and general all round failure. In that case the cover of the link box explodes first. The failure analyst can look for such important clues at site to establish the cause of failure.

But what can we do to prevent such explosions and loss?

There are a number of possibilities some of which are as follows:

a) Specify short circuiting test during procurement stage (the best option)

b) Install Transformer protector. This is a passive mechanical system that is activated by the level of transformer tank internal pressure reached during a short circuit. At least two transformers can be simultaneously protected by one device.

c) Install protective system based on the release of superheated water at 180 degrees C.

d) Install protective systems based on the release of powder to suppress the fire and subsequent explosion.

e) Install protective systems based on water and salts.

f) Regularly monitor the condition of the existing protective devices and the general health of the transformer.

It might be of some interest to see the photograph of the burning transformer and the unfortunate dead bird, which I have pasted on this blog.

Hope this would be of help to Project Managers, Plant Heads, Safety Managers, Maintenance Managers, Electrical Engineers and Reliability Specialists to prevent such unfortunate events in our plants.

Signing off for now,

Dibyendu

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Making the Most of Customer Complaints, - MIT Sloan Management Review

Making the Most of Customer Complaints, - MIT Sloan Management Review

Service Failures (more commonly known as Customer Complaints) are also failures like equipment failures that need the careful attention of managers.

This article provides interesting insights into dealing with service failures. It means a lot more than just fixing the immediate problem, which we usually do to address any type of failure.


The solution proposed in this article is to address tensions that arise among front-line employees who handle complaints, the managers of those employees, and the customers themselves. Steps include starting a complaints database that would induce managers to think out of the box to improve service, and rewarding service employees not for reductions in complaints but for providing exceptional solutions to problems.

But what is intuitively not clear is that all product complaints are always linked to the design of our factories, the design of our machines and its upkeep and the design of the associated processes. I have seen only a few companies that make a direct link of complaints to plant engineering (I am not somehow comfortable with the terms like mechanical maintenance, electrical maintenance etc since it puts people into narrow silos and kills the joy of enjoying the engineering job in its totality). Hindustan Unilever, as I have seen in one of their factories, directly addresses product complaints through shop-floor improvements and redesign of their machines, components, materials, packaging and processes. They take up this activity very seriously and often succeed in solving problems permanently through innovative methods thus bringing about a change in the number of product complaints. Tata Metaliks is another company I have seen in my fairly long career that also tries to address customer product complaints through innovative improvements in the process and equipment. However, improvement in a process industry is far more difficult than making improvements in a FMCG industry. This is because process industries are far more capital intensive and once a machine is selected and installed it is very difficult to undo the mistakes done or modify the system.

But unfortunately, actively linking product complaints to shop floor improvement is not the case with most companies I know of. Why is this? This is because, companies that succeed are companies that are managed by people and managers who prefer thinking out of the box and concentrate on the quality rather than on numbers. However, the most important reason, as I see it is that these organizations are determined to succeed. And such people or cultures are difficult to get or build. The intention and the will of successful organizations are clear. And such organizations are plain lucky to have such managers and employees on their roll. They build the much needed courage amongst others in the organizations to play, experiment and fully enjoy their jobs. Because innovation is simply 'serious play'.

The worst case, I have seen over the last thirty years is that of Hindustan Motors. They just refused to improve their machines, design, materials and processes. They could have done fantastic innovations through simple engineering improvements. But they stubbornly refused to listen. The result is that they have now almost managed to push their product (their good old Ambassador cars) and themselves to oblivion. Such companies behave like 'ostriches' that refuse to see and acknowledge the problem as it is and do strange things believing something else would bring about their profitability. Hence they simply lack the system to improve. They either believe that 'quick fixes' and 'clever manipulations' are enough to do the job or simply don't believe that 'customer pays for their product'.

So, are you linking customer complaints to engineering improvements in the shop-floor or the factory?

To read the main article just click on the link.

Signing off
dibyendu

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Response to 'Freak Failure Mode of Transformer.

I must thank Mr. Partha Chattopadhyay, Chief Engineering of Tata Metaliks, Goa plant for his kind comments in the form of an email in response to my earlier blog on ‘Freak Failure Mode of Transformer’. I value his comments since it comes from a fine electrical engineer know of. He brings in his original perspective on the issue? But I have a more important reason for putting it up in my blog since I have grown up as an engineer to believe that any engineer can learn more through such interactions of live case studies and increase his/her width and depth of knowledge which would ultimately benefit our society in many ways.

However, as desired by him, I assure him that I shall try to put in my thoughts on the issue of fire and explosion of transformers more cogently in my next blog entry in greater depth and try my best to explain the physics of this phenomenon. Fire and explosion of transformer is a serious issue which is often neglected or not properly understood even by experts on safety. However, once understood properly, plant engineers can take care of this serious issue during the procurement stage and during operation and running of the plant. It is also important since it affects so many people and society at large. And it might be of interest not only to electrical engineers but also safety engineers, project managers and other plant engineers too.

Signing off for now

Dibyendu De

Quote


Dear Mr. De,

I have following points for your consideration:

1) Transformer oil’s flash point is around 140deg Centigrade. High Dielectric strength only ensures that no spark occurs (which means breaking of insulation and passage of huge current, which may lead to attainment of flash point) between to points having high voltage gradient. Transformer oil having good dielectric strength will catch fire easily provided it attains its flash point.

2) Also, DGA helps us in finding incipient fault of transformer winding. Generally, cotton and cellulose materials are used for transformer winding. Traces (ng/L)of Methane, Ethane like gasses can be detected in the transformer oil. Such traces can not contribute further to transformer oil’s natural inflammability.

I guess that a huge spark might have occurred when the hawk touched with the terminals of the transformer. Such short circuit will certainly generate massive electromagnetic force, which can cause mechanical damage to the insulators, resulting into leakage of the transformer oil. In addition, I feel there was an accumulation of transformer oil on the top cover of the transformer due to some unattended leakage. Probably this accumulated oil caught fire first and then the leakage contributed to continuation of fire.

Following measures may act as antidotes to this type of trouble

1) we must not neglect small issues like checking of all safety devices 2) periodic oil testing, 3) keeping the transformer free from leakages, 4) periodic checking of transformer’s protective devices, 5) Use of fire retardant synthetic oil(Very expensive!!).

Yes we need to institutionalize maintenance audit. This will certainly help us in finding systemic gaps.

Looking forward your reply,

With regards,

Partha Chattopadhyay

Unquote


Dibyendu De



Thursday, September 18, 2008

Funny and Remote Failure Mode of Transformer

On 16th Sept 2008 (Tuesday) a high voltage distribution transformer caught fire in Behrampore town in the state of Orissa in India plunging large areas into darkness for two days (Times of India, dated 17th Sept 2008, Kolkata edition). And how did it fail and what was the reason?

Apparently a hawk flying over the sub-station hit the high voltage electric wire and fell on the 31.5 MVA (Mega Volt Ampere) transformer which instantly burst into flames. Evidently, due to a mechanical fault, the auto-fire protection mechanism of the transformer failed to work and when departmental staff tried to douse the flames with water, the flames rose higher and went out of control. It is interesting to note that the transformer contains 20, 000 liters of oil to keep it cool and act as insulator.

Apparently it seems that it was freak failure mode. But a little amount of careful thinking would show that it is not. The problem reveals a lot of issues and imperfections in the system.

First, why was the mechanical fault of the auto fire protection lying unattended? Simply because no one perhaps monitored whether the protection system is functioning or not. This is called detective maintenance.

Second, why did the departmental staff try to put out the fire with water? Can an electrical fire by put off with water? It means they did the action without any awareness. They simply thought that it is an ordinary case of oil on fire. Even fire on oil should be doused with foam and not water. A gross neglect of training and lack of preparedness.

Third, what about the strength of the transformer? Was it tested for short circuit resistance? It is not supposed to breakdown if the transformer is tested after manufacture. What about analyzing the gas build up within the transformer? What about regular venting off the gas? Was it built into the system? What about regular and simple monitoring of the di-electric strength of the oil and the dissolved gases in the oil? What does it show? No care to monitor the condition of the transformer and no regard to the intial specification of the transformer during purchase.

So, we can conclude that the event not as an freak accident but as a gross neglect of maintenance and reliability thinking that led to the loss of equipment, manpower and loss of power for the consumers. Even if the striking of the hawk appears to be remote, it is not the real cause of the failure. The real cause was human neglect to care for their assets that led to the failure. Reliability and Maintenance pays!

Dibyendu De

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Lip Seals -- Failure rate Monitoring and Energy loss

Some manufacturers of lip seal did a research work on the life of lip seals and they found that on the average the Mean Time to Failure of lip seals was around 77 days of operation or around 1644 operating hours. And the maximum life is around 3000 hours or around 180 days of operation.

But there is another disturbing fact. The same group of researchers also found out that the energy loss per lip seal is around 147 Watts of power. So, it is not difficult to calculate the total loss of energy when we are using more than 500 lip seals all around the plant for 24 hours of operation. It is a substantial amount of money.

So, I feel that there are three important issues to the question of reliability of the seals.

The first issue is how do we improve the life or durability of the seal?

The next issue is how do we monitor the condition of the seal? There seems to be no proven method of monitoring the condition of the lip seal except for the fact that some engineers have tried out the use of Infra-red thermography heat pictures to monitor the condition of lip seals, which I think is neither too elegant not does not seem to always work.

The third important issue is how do we reduce or contain the energy loss due to use of lip seals?

Usually we understand the defect after the failure has taken place. And the consequences of the failure can be high, including safety like the contained fluid catching fire. Evidence of secondary failures like grooving in the shaft is also not very uncommon to find.

Hence this is a critical failure mode that needs to be addressed in a variety of ways, like proper selection of shaft material, hardness of the material, direction of grinding of the bearing and seal areas, surface roughness, lowering the coefficient of friction, minimizing the effect of unbalanced forces in the system and alternative use of non-contact seals. We have tried out these measures improve durability of the lip seals and it works.

Since a direct monitoring method is yet found the alternative is to use a probabilitic way of assessing the life and condition of the seals by measuring parametes that has a direct influence on seal life. This is possible and I found my method to work in all cases and conditions. The only problem is it is sometimes difficult to establish the 'probabilistic parameters', which may vary from case to case.

However, reducing energy consumption is again a tricky issue. This can also be dealt in a probabilitic manner and by keeping the influencing parameters within control or to an optimum limit of a probabilistic combination.

Dibyendu De
Design Innovator -- Plant Reliability

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Heat Flow and Reduction of Power loss

Air Conditioning Power Loss and its Prevention

As more and more air conditioners enter our homes in India we have a problem. Now everyone starts thinking of their power bills. And the utility companies also start worrying about the sudden increase in loads and dynamics of the situation. As we have seen that demand outstrips the supply position. And this is one of the reasons of power cuts in our cities and villages, especially during the summer months.

So, what can we do about it?

As consumers we can think of reducing the power consumption of the ACs. We can best do this by thinking about the direction of the heat flow from our rooms to the ambient. Since the ambient is at a higher temperature than our rooms heat would always like to flow from outside to the inside. And what do you think is the most likely passage of the heat flow?

Though we seldom think about it the maximum heat flow takes place through the glass windows. And the heat flow is through radiation. Hence, all we need to do is to paste a film onto the outside of the glass windows to reflect the radiated heat and prevent it from entering the room thus reducing the load on the air conditioner.

What the electricity utility companies can do to meet the erratic surges in demand? They can along with their coal based thermal systems have a number of gas turbines which they can press into service as the demand goes up. This is simply because of the fact that they can store gas whilst they can't store electricity.

Dibyendu De
Design Innovator -- Plant Reliability

Saturday, September 13, 2008

A Note on Failure modes of 304 SS and its prevention.

Chromium in concentrations above 12% renders steel stainless. 304 stainless steel, which contains 19% Cr and 9% Ni. (The nickel strengthens the alloy and gives greater corrosion resistance.) Unfortunately if the steel contains nearly 0.1% residual carbon from the iron and steel-making processes then the chromium in the SS has a strong affinity for carbon, and slow cooling through the red heat range allows chromium carbides to nucleate heterogeneously on the grain boundaries. The adjacent regions in the grains are depleted of chromium to far below the 12% threshold and are no longer as corrosion resistant. Thus, the steel is said to be "sensitized" and is susceptible to intergranular corrosive attack. The slow cool after the welding of the 304 SS allows such precipitation and triggers sensitization. This is technically known as the sensitization temperature of SS which is around 650 degrees C (ball park figure). It can get activated during welding or due the application like using 304 SS in very hot working conditions.

Even when sensitized, the steel is adequate for many applications, such as household products (SS utensils that we use on the gas ovens) and even containers for less concentrated nitric acid. However, while sensitized steel is adequate for 75% nitric acid, it could not be used for the 90% solution.

Whenever corrosive attack on 304 grade of SS is the predominant failure mode it might be prevented in several ways. For example, low carbon stainless steel, designated as 304L could be used. Or, addition of niobium during steel making would tie up the carbon as fine, harmless intragranular niobium carbides. Alternatively, we can anneal, especially welded joints on 304 (if possible -- size of the furnace often becomes a constraint) at a bright-red heat to dissolve the carbides and then water quench to prevent their re-nucleation. Any of these techniques can be effective, but the additional cost has to taken into account.

Dibyendu De

Thursday, September 11, 2008

What Engineers Should Learn from the Big Dig Tragedy - 2008-06-16 10:47:00 - Design News

What Engineers Should Learn from the Big Dig Tragedy - 2008-06-16 10:47:00 - Design News


A failure analysis case study on failure of polymers and epoxy and their failure modes.

There are many lessons to learn.

Just click on the link above to read the whole story.

Dibyendu De

The Case of the Acid Test - 2003-02-17 00:00:00 - Design News

The Case of the Acid Test - 2003-02-17 00:00:00 - Design News

An excellent case study on Failure Analysis of Stainless Steel drum containing nitric acid of 90% strength.

a case study on Forensic Metallurgy

Dibyendu De