Monday, October 25, 2010

Surely You aren't Joking, Mr. Feynman!

Richard Feynman was a very serious and critical thinker. He deeply reflected on all that he observed. I love his 'reflective' stories whenever I get to read about them or hear or see them on videos. Here is one of my favorite stories:

Once he was reviewing a book on school mathematics. And this is the story he had to say:

Quote:

Finally I come to a book that says, “Mathematics is used in science in many ways. We will give you an example from astronomy, which is the science of stars.” I turn the page, and it says, “Red stars have a temperature of four thousand degrees, yellow stars have a temperature of five thousand degrees . . .” — so far, so good. It continues: “Green stars have a temperature of seven thousand degrees, blue stars have a temperature of ten thousand degrees, and violet stars have a temperature of . . . (some big number).” There are no green or violet stars, but the figures for the others are roughly correct. It’s vaguely right — but already, trouble! That’s the way everything was: Everything was written by somebody who didn’t know what the hell he was talking about, so it was a little bit wrong, always! And how we are going to teach well by using books written by people who don’t quite understand what they’re talking about, I cannot understand. I don’t know why, but the books are lousy; UNIVERSALLY LOUSY

I’m a bit unhappy when I read about the stars’ temperatures, but I’m not very unhappy because it’s more or less right — it’s just an example of error. Then comes the list of problems. It says, “John and his father go out to look at the stars. John sees two blue stars and a red star. His father sees a green star, a violet star, and two yellow stars. What is the total temperature of the stars seen by John and his father?” — and I would explode in horror.


There’s no purpose whatsoever in adding the temperature of two stars. Nobody ever does that except, maybe, to then take the average temperature of the stars, but not to find out the total temperature of all the stars! It was awful! All it was was a game to get you to add, and they didn’t understand what they were talking about. It was like reading sentences with a few typographical errors, and then suddenly a whole sentence is written backwards. The mathematics was like that. Just hopeless!

Unquote

The unfortunate thing is that we keep repeating such errors with all seriousness time and again.

For example, we know the population of the earth to be around 6 billion. At present, this population is divided into two groups -- the developed nations and the developing nations. Basically, the distinction lies in the amount of energy people consume in the two camps. People in developed nations consume much more energy than people of developed nations. Sometimes the order of magnitude can be 1000 times.

But that is not the problem. The problem is when we start thinking about issues like global warming and sustainability. In such times, we start adding up just like adding up the temperatures of the stars and then project and predict figures of global warming assuming that all of 6 billion people would want to be at par with the best standard of living by consuming equivalent amount of energy as presently done by the people of the developed nations.

Now that is 'UNIVERSALLY LOUSY' thinking as the possibility of all 6 billion people enjoying the same standard of living is ridiculously low or virtually zero. The rich and the poor divide is going to stay so long some of us want to improve upon or maintain the standard of living enjoyed by the developed nations.

We continue to do such horrible mistakes in the business world too. We add numbers and come up with meaningless understanding.

How good is the manpower?

Well, we are 1000 strong.

How good or stable is the company?

We have a turnover of over $10 billion and growing at the rate of 5% every year.

How talented are we?

We are extremely talented. We have 100 professionally trained managers and 300 professional engineers.

There is turbulence inside this turbine gear box.

How can that be? The temperature of the gear box is only 65 degrees C.

This is simply hopeless type of thinking.

Surely, Feynman wasn't joking.

Next time we are tempted to 'add' or manipulate numbers just be careful about whether it means anything.

In most cases it would prove to be meaningless. 

Source of the Story on Richard Feynman: http://www.textbookleague.org

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Sunday, October 17, 2010

THE CHIVALROUS – The Wrong Side of Life

Scene I

 

The year was 2003. Typewriters are not to be seen anywhere. They became extinct like our wildlife. But there was one. In one of the “elite” department of Government of India office. Secret messages are typed so that no one can trace back a message. After office hours the ribbon of the type writer is ripped off and kept in the “safe”.  Oh, what a security!

 

Why this ritual? Yes it’s written in the ‘black book’. In the name of safety & security anything, yes anything, can be done and continue to be done without assessing the present reality. It creates problems for everyone. But never mind; we would continue to run systems and organizations by the rule book. We refuse to think any further. Period.

 

Scene II

 

Production is not keeping up with orders. Late delivery is creating angry customers. Quality is suffering. The owner thinks that people are plain lazy and need to work harder in a more systematic way, which means work like robots and stick to instructions. In an effort to set things right a detailed manual is created. More forms are filled up. More supervision is put in place. Supervisors are trained to be unrelenting with any type of slackness. Detailed reporting and meetings become frequent. People start blaming each other. Shop floor becomes a venue for shouting matches. Some more machines are added. TQM and TPM are put in place. But things do not improve. Situation deteriorates further. The owner frets: “People must work like machines then only productivity would increase.”

 

We refuse to think in any differently. We refuse to think in terms of design and systems. We think that systems must behave the way we think it should. We don’t let go of that old comfortable feeling. The industrial mindset continues.   

 

Scene III

 

One security joker had ordered that no coins will be allowed inside the J.N. Stadium, New Delhi on the eve of the recently concluded Common Wealth Games. People wondered what connection has coins got with security. Perhaps “security experts” thought some terrorist can plant a bomb using coins as splinters. Or they thought these can be used as deadly missiles against the VIPs. The Delhi police strictly followed the instruction and asked people to deposit the coins in the box before they entered the stadium.  Guess how much was collected? One Lakh rupees in the very first day. This amount would go to the government coffers as none were given a “deposit slip”. Surely the Security Expert who gave out this instruction must have received an honorarium or at least a cash reward for “services rendered outside his/her normal sphere of work”. After all he has done a service which has made not only his department but the Finance Ministry proud.

 

More the rules merrier it is. We have stopped thinking in terms of principles. Slow up the darn processes and everything would be under control. Command and control everything especially in the name of protecting bosses and public figures. Turn your face towards the boss and your ass towards the customers. It is an appealing idea to control people through grand ‘screw ups’. Let them taste fear. Customers? Who are they?  

 

Scene IV

 

Year – 2009: A Professor from IIM lectures on the importance of innovation, design and creating patents to ensure business sustainability of an organization. Senior Managers are excited about the whole concept. They boost up their designers with ‘pep talks’ and asks them to contribute to the innovation drive. They ask them to create new products. Would they be given separate time to do that? Not at all! They are to contribute to the ‘innovation drive’ over and above their normal routine jobs of designing products against specific customer orders.

 

Nothing much happens in six months. Management reviews the situation through ‘critical audit’ and discovers that they have really landed up with lousy fools and shirkers. They decide to call off the ‘innovation drive’. So much for innovative thinking! We still refuse to think well. We refuse to design think. We refuse to see systems as a whole. We refuse to hold onto any vision.  

 

Scene V

 

The year was 1997. It was 08.30 in the evening. The Jodhpur bound “Mandore Express” was about to leave from Platform No 14 at Delhi Railway Station. I picked up my rucksack and told my colleague to hurry up so that we don’t miss the train. We were stopped at the main entrance. Police personnel were checking the bags and frisking the passengers. We obeyed their orders. I opened my belongings. Things were checked thoroughly but no one wanted to see our ticket. We rushed towards the coach. After locating our seats we settled down. My friend was very meticulous. He chained his bags under the seat. We looked over and found a group of young businessmen enjoying a drink “secretly”. At the other side of the berth a young woman with her teenage daughter were eyeing those young people suspiciously. Perhaps their presence was not comfortable to the young ladies.

 

We opened our packed dinner. Old newspapers were spread out on the seat. The “roties” and “sabji” were out. Out of nowhere two well built persons, hair cropped, with an unsophisticated look came and sat besides us. We felt irritated but carried on with our present job. “Where are you going? “ The usual uncomfortable question which one has to face if you travel in India. I choose to ignore the question. “We are from the police, now tell us where you are from and where are you heading to and what work you have there”. All questions asked in a single flow. I thought its better to deal with these morons in a cool and calculated manner instead of loosing one’s temper. I answered all of their queries justifying each and every reply. I thought --- Do I look like a dreaded criminal or is it a case of mistaken identity. One of the morons asked me, “Do you possess any identity card?” To test him I showed him the newly issued PAN (Permanent Account Number) issued by the Income Tax Authorities. He took the card gave a hard look. His face said it all.  Sir, you are from the Income Tax department? Sorry to bother you sir, please have a safe journey. They quickly left the place. My friend and I had a hearty laugh.

 

Education and building great environments backed up by equally great institutions are critical to success. We find it convenient to forget about such basic principles. People are simply supposed to follow rule books if they want to stick to a job. Isn’t it? So merrily make more stupid rules to run organizations. Forget basic principles.

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Saturday, October 9, 2010

Creating, Operating & Maintaining Systems -- Nature's way

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O&M.pdf (402 KB)

The Central Question & Its Answer

I loved solving this problem and loved this story. It gave me the fundamental enlightenment into systems and their behavior.

The central question that arises from this case is: What happens when we push any system away from its equilibrium position?

Once any system is pushed away from its equilibrium position, which we do by performing work, it tries hard to come back to its equilibrium position.

In order to do that any system will respond in only three ways:

a) It dissipates energy in form of vibrations (through oscillations, resonances, damping)

b) It dissipates energy in form of heat (through flow turbulence, energy waves)

c) It dissipates energy to self destruction in form of wear (self destructs to converts matter from one state to another to dissipate energy)

And it utilizes all the three methods simultaneously and in different ways at any given time as soon as any system is pushed away from equilibrium.

This is Nature's way to maintain equilibrium. That is her unique way to operate and maintain any system. She does that instantaneously with little or no delay but never reserves the action for a later time.

Restating the Famous 2nd Law -- the heart of the Issue 

Can we understand such universal system behavior through the famous 2nd law of thermodynamics?

We know from 2nd law that while we can convert heat energy to work we can't convert all work to heat energy. Something must be lost. This we call 'entropy'. Though it is useful the famous law only tells us what a what a system can't do.

It does not tell us what a system can do. But what does a system actually do? Can we now restate the famous law in another way?

When we push any system from its equilibrium position the system would utilize all its resources and relationships between its different elements to come back to the equilibrium as soon as possible and try to maintain that state with the minimum dissipation as possible, failing which, it would either change the quality of motion or self destruct itself if allowed to continue in an undesirable state of motion.

These properties to vibrate, dissipate and wear out (different forms of dissipation and self destruction) are inherent properties available in all matter that respond creatively in a self organizing manner at all times simultaneously to the application of energy in form of work imposed on any system or matter to create ongoing emergent properties. Nothing can be stored for something to happen at a later time. It can only be delayed at best.

Hence Energy and Matter are interdependent on each other to create myriad self organizing patterns, where each pattern reflects and represents the system's condition at any given point in time and its desperate effort to come back to its equilibrium position and maintain itself in that position. It would try to do so in many creative ways. It is the source of all creativity, which I suspect is true for all living and nonliving matter even for human beings.

Creativity is expressed through dissipation (turbulence) and self destruction (resonance & wear).

For machines we can see such possible patterns through vibration signatures, pictures of heat flow patterns (thermograms) and distribution of worn particles of matter (ferrograph).

In business we see such patterns through patterns like production work flows, inventory and cash flows and losses. While the work done on the system is the flow of orders.

All these system patterns contain two vital information that aids our understanding.

The patterns represent state or condition of the system at any given time, which I call the 'emergence' or the present condition. This is caused by the interdependent play of system elements -- the relationships between different elements and resources, which I call the essence. Hence, any pattern must exhibit the relationships that cause the emergent behavior of a system and must depict the emergence itself. For example, a vibration signature must contain the emergence and the essence.

A Simple Summary:

1. Work creates the condition for a system to move away from equilibrium (creation of possibilities). Dissipation maintains the system at equilibrium (maintenance through various creative possibilities). Destruction breaks down the system or degrades it if the system is unable to reach the equilibrium quickly enough (death, change of quality of motion or breakdown to various possible states).

2. Dissipation is done through flow turbulence, vibration, damping and dissipation of heat.

3. Destruction is basically done through force amplification, resonnance and wear and conversion of matter from one state to another.

4. Both proceed in macro and micro states where the present state is not quite similar to the previous. The transformation proceeds in its own time creating its own time scales a gross understanding of which can be obtained from trends over time. Though with such time trends tentative but generally inaccurate short term predictions are possible; accurate long term predictions of a system's behavior is never possible .

5. Why is it not possible to predict? Because both 'dissipation' and 'self-destruction' (an ultimate form of dissipation) are extremely creative processes. Both create new states in motion. We just don't know what would be created when. But while dissipation creates new states by maintaining the motion; destruction creates new states through cessation or slowing down of motion.

6. The play of dissipation and self destruction creatively create complexity, chaos and uncertainty that is full of possibilities (various states). This creates patterns.

7. In patterns we look for similarities in dissimilarities and dissimilarities in similarities. That increases our choice.

8. Hence, it is up to us to choose amongst the sets of possibilities that are favorable for our intended purpose that lend meaning of our existence and work.

9. The beauty of such possibilities is that it creates disorder through order and creates order through disorder. 

10. In simple terms, such order and disorder are produced by Vibration, Heat and Wear that co-exist in any system creating the interdependent play of motion, which is the central theme of creation, maintenance, renewal and death. This provides the self organizing principle of any system that self organize itself into various states. Though Vibration, Heat and Wear are simply different manifestations of the same emergent behavior we tend to see and examine them separately, which we need not do at all.

Making it Useful: (Unity in Diversity)

How useful are these concepts of Nature illustrated through the story?

1. It unifies the whole of engineering

2. It describes the fundamental properties of any system. It would be true for any system -- living or non-living, machines or industrial or management systems.

3. It helps us to create or design new self organizing systems

4. It helps us to maintain systems and prolong the usefulness of any system for a long time.

5. Design, Operation and Maintenance do not exist independently. They are simply different perspectives of the same issue and are to to be tackled simultaneously.

6. It helps us to change the output of a system by changing the relationships (without redesigning systems) to something more favorable.

7. Repeated and frequent self destruction of a system would indicate that the system is no longer useful for its purpose.

Conclusions:

1. Trans-disciplinary and not multi-disciplinary approach is needed to create, operate and maintain systems.

2. Designers, Operation Personnel, Maintenance Personnel, Marketers, Business Managers and Leaders, Artists, Teachers etc can all gain from this understanding & insight.

3. In short, this is the fundamental story of life as we know it.

I dedicate this blog post to my Guru Mr. Tim Henry, the former Chairman of WM Engineering, a consulting wing of the University of Manchester, U.K.


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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

WHEN I WAS IN....

 

A group of soldiers “trots” through the walkway of the army cantonment area. Returning after finishing their “clerical duties “at the cantonment office. A Major turns up at the corner in an olive color SUV Maruti Gypsy. With full of confidence and dignity he rests his left hand at the window sill. That is the custom which one has to follow. The senior always sits by the side of the “driver”. If his senior would have been there then the Major would have taken the pains of driving himself. The vehicle zooms past the group. Major tilts his head and sees the soldiers through the corner of his Rayban sunglasses. The soldiers stop their movement. Stands in attention till the vehicle goes by leaving behind a cloud of dust so as to make them cough. The Major feels satisfied. His ego, self-esteem, and the discipline of the forces, everything is in order. He comes back to his government accommodation. The driver opens the door for his “master”. The major’s wife looks on from the balcony. She feels her father had done the right thing in getting her married to an army officer. What an authority her husband commands. He may not be able to carry out with the same amount of authority during their infrequent love sessions but any how it doesn’t matter. So long as there are retinues of government paid workers to help them in their daily cores, it doesn’t matter.  Once “Major Sahib” had confided to his wife the main cause of his poor and erratic love life.  It is the Defense Ministry. Had he been not posted to Siachin Glacier when he was the Captain, every thing would have been complete. The extreme cold had taken away everything, well almost everything.

 

After few years the Major gets a promotion. He is transferred to Arunachal Pradesh. The frequent transfer is almost ruining the education of his son. They want him to become a “high level government bureaucrat” and not an army officer like his father and grandfather. “Actually my son is not wired to become an army officer, he is physically weak”. The Major would often tell his colleagues at the army club after gulping down half a bottle of subsidized defense canteen whisky. So he sends his only son to a boarding school in Ajmer (Rajasthan). Yah, now he will get the best of the world. His son will now rub shoulders with the peers of politicians from India, Bangladesh and sometimes Nepal. Sons of erstwhile Maharajas of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh all Royal family will now be his friends. The very thought that his son will move around with the “elite class” of people gave him the evasive “satisfaction”.

 

 Once our Major had now become a “Major General”. His son had graduated in Humanities stream. He became successful in the “Indian Civil Services” examination after a third attempt. His ranking was low so he got into allied services. He became an IOFS (Indian Ordnance Factory Service) officer. He did not like it, neither his father. Who will tackle all those dirty factory workers and deal with those “stupid Unions”. Major had an idea. He will now use his clout and “high connection” to transfer his son to a cushy desk job with an added incentive of going “abroad”. He goes to Delhi --- The Seat of Power. Catch hold of his long lost friend who now heads an intelligence department. The Major’s son gets a deputation from his parent department without attending a single day in the office. What fun? Really if one has connection he can do wonders in India especially in government departments.

 

 

After few years the Major retires from his blotch free, scandal free, scam free army service. He was given a ceremonial send off. He vacates his government accommodation and moves to his 2,700 sq ft Gurgaon flat near Delhi. My goodness what a flat. At the 14th floor and fully secured. Just one has to buy vegetables in the compound. What facilities? What amenities?

 

The Major son got married through a matrimonial website. Beautiful girl and an equally glamorized wedding ceremony ala Bollywood style. The 2,700 sq ft flat was too small to accommodate two families meaning four members --- Major, his wife, his son and his daughter-in-law. Well they are “wired” like that.  His son moved on to Pahargunj Railway officers’ accommodation. The Major’s daughter-in-law is from the Railway Officer’s cadre. What a match.

 

With no retinue of paid government workers the Major’s wife was having a lot of problems. With a limited income and most of the money wasted in buying a posh flat the Major has a financial crisis. He cannot ask for help from his son. He kept on wondering what to do. His cell phone starts ringing. It was call from the Prime minister’s Office. They want him to be the next Governor of Nagaland. He was speechless and breathless. After all it is a reward for his unquestioned loyalty to a particular political party. He moves to Kohima.

 

 

After five years he comes back to Delhi. Now he is Retired Major General and ex Governor of Nagaland. The brass name plate at the main door of his flat speaks more than what has been inscribed in it. He is a satisfied man. Everything in life has been accomplished. Well almost everything. But why aren’t his colleagues, friends, relatives and the other flat owners in his building are not coming to him to spend some time with him. Are they jealous of him or they are too scared of him that he has become unreachable and unapproachable for them.

 

 

Every morning he gets up and dresses himself in white T, white shorts, white socks and white sports shoes. He never misses the baton and his dog. He jogs for a while in the “secured compound” of the building. Only a few days back three commandos used to guard him like a shadow but now only his dog follows him. Passersby look at him not in awe but with compassion.

 

Last heard the Major’s wife committed suicide. Now he is not alone but staying with his dog and remembering fond memories---- When I was in ---------.



Lessons Learned:


1. The old mindset of command and control, hierarchy, manipulation, politics, subservience is clearly behind us now.


2. The new mindset would tend to see things differently - the Picasso way. Treat people differently. Collaborate to create value. Identify with contribution not ranks.


3. The new would be in the mode of continual renewal unlike the past that somehow agreed to have no discernible public face. They depended on others to give them titles and badges to continually live in the past.


Motto: The King is Dead: Long Live the King.



Main contributor: Sitendu Illustrator: Rishi

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Saturday, October 2, 2010

The Birth of an Era

This is a fine pictorial representation of the history of the world's GDP.

It provides us with interesting riddles.

1. What is the new era that is coming up, beginning 2011?

2. What would be the characteristics of this new era?

3. What traits one must develop to engage in this new era?

Please comment.

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